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World Bank widens GDP contraction forecast to 9.6%

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Poverty discount suffers setback; ‘continue key reforms to reverse virus impact’

The World Bank expects India’s financial system to contract by 9.6% in 2020-21, revising its earlier estimate in June that output will shrink by simply 3.2% amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. This revision displays ‘the impact of the national lockdown and the income shock experienced by households and firms’, the Bank defined.

In its South Asia Economic Focus report launched on Thursday, the Bank reckoned there will likely be a rebound to 5.4% progress in 2021-22, however largely due to base results and hinging on assumptions that the pandemic-related restrictions are utterly lifted by 2022.

India’s gross home product (GDP) contracted 23.9% within the first quarter of this 12 months and official estimates for the second quarter are anticipated at end-November. The Bank mooted continuation of vital reforms to reverse the sudden and steep impacts of COVID-19.

“Monetary policy has been deployed aggressively and fiscal resources have been channelled to public health and social protection, but additional counter-cyclical measures will be needed, within a revised medium-term fiscal framework.

“Despite measures to shield vulnerable households and firms, the trajectory of poverty reduction has slowed, if not reversed,” the Bank stated on India. It stated vital disruptions to jobs seemingly boosted the poverty fee, with 2020 charges again to ranges in 2016.

“Policy interventions have preserved the normal functioning of financial markets thus far. However, the demand slowdown could lead to rising loan delinquencies and risk aversion,” it famous.



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