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The Non-choice for Muslim Voters: Why Owaisi May Fail Yet Again in Bihar

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Despite displaying a formidable efficiency in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and profitable an meeting constituency in October 2019, Asaduddin Owaisi could fail but once more in Bihar.

Owaisi’s get together All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) was no-show, an absent performer in the 2015 Bihar meeting elections even when it selected to combat in the Seemanchal space which has a big Muslim inhabitants. The get together fought on six seats and misplaced deposits in 5. The solely good factor for the get together was that it was the runner-up in Kochadhaman constituency with its candidate getting 26.14% of votes.

AIMIM, although, threw up some surprises in 2019.

First, it carried out properly in the one Lok Sabha ballot it fought in the Muslim-dominated Kishanganj constituency. Though the get together couldn’t win the seat, it made the combat triangular. The seat was gained by the Congress with 33.32% votes. The JD(U) was the runner-up with 30.19% votes and AIMIM was at third place with 26.78% votes.

AIMIM led in Bahadurganj and Kochadhaman meeting segments whereas it was on the second place in the Amour meeting phase. The get together was at quantity three in the opposite meeting segments: Kishanganj, Thakurganj and Baisi.

And then it went on to win the bypoll of the Kishanganj meeting constituency in October 2019. AIMIM’s Qamrul Hoda gained the seat.

But that is probably not repeated in the 2020 meeting polls regardless of Owaisi making CAA-NRC as his electoral pitch and AIMIM could but once more stare at figures just like the 2015 elections even whether it is preventing in alliance with the RLSP and BSP and has fielded candidates on 20 seats.

The main purpose is the Muslim voters could desire the RJD-Congress’s Mahagathbandhan over Owaisi to maintain the JD(U)-BJP out of energy in Bihar. Owaisi’s get together may need gained some important votes in Kishanganj final yr however the get together was not a winner and the election was not about forming the federal government in Bihar. The identical logic extends to the bypoll as properly which it gained simply by 10,000 votes. And Muslims could ditch Owaisi in Kishanganj too because the runner-up in the meeting constituency was BJP. They could flock to a Mahagathbandhan candidate this time to stop splitting of votes.

1604846872 capture The Non-choice for Muslim Voters: Why Owaisi May Fail Yet Again in Bihar

How Owaisi’s get together could cut up Muslim votes and the way that will assist solely the NDA turns into clear by trying on the desk above. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in the Kishanganj parliamentary constituency, the JD(U), a BJP ally, obtained a big variety of votes as they have been divided between Muslim candidates fielded by all these events. Though Congress gained the seat, it was simply by a skinny margin of three% votes; in any other case the distinction could be fairly important. Add to it the emergence of the BJP in Kishanganj in the 2019 bypolls when it gave a superb combat in a district the place 70% of the inhabitants is from the Muslim neighborhood.

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